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Twelve months ago, I made 12 predictions for travel in 2024—9 pieces of good news for travelers and 3 pieces of bad news.
Of those 12 predictions seen below, 10 wound up correct. A score of 83%—quite a bit better than I might have guessed at the beginning of the year.
Scott’s all-time prediction scores:
2024: 83% correct
2023: 77% correct
2022: 71% correct
Here’s how this year’s predictions shook out.
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The Good
1. Average airfare won’t rise or fall more than 5%. (70% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
After double-digit swings the past four years, airfare is currently just 4.7% higher than it was 12 months ago.
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Despite the rise, we still manage to find amazing deals every single day—like $300s–$400s roundtrip to Europe during peak season, mistake fares in business class, and points deals to Tokyo. Download the Going app, and be the first to know when we find them!
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2. A new record for air travel numbers. (70% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
While we’re awaiting an exact final count—it’s looking like a 5% increase over 2023—the result is the same: 2024 was the busiest year ever for air travel, with around 900 million enplanements in the US alone.
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3. Flight cancellations under 2% for the year. (60% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
So far this year, the average monthly cancellation rate is 1.6%, significantly below the long-term average of ~2%. And that’s in spite of a few noteworthy snafus, including Alaska’s plug door blowout in January and Delta’s CrowdStrike outage in July.
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4. There will be between 5 and 10 mistake fares departing US airports. (60% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
The Going team uncovered 6 mistake fares in 2024. While mistake fares still occur every couple months or so, airlines have gotten better in the past decade at preventing mistakes (boo). Here were the deals:
- Brussels – $1,259 roundtrip in business class
- Taiwan – 15k points one-way
- Ireland – $114 roundtrip
- Cabo Verde – $680 roundtrip in business class
- Iceland – $299 roundtrip with peak summer availability
- Helsinki – 19k points roundtrip in business class
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5. No US airlines will reinstitute change fees. (90% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
Many had doubts when airlines announced in 2020 they were “permanently” getting rid of change fees. Thankfully, none of the US airlines have gone back on their word.
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6. Maui will rebound to pre-disaster tourism numbers. (60% confidence)
Verdict: ❌
Not even close. Tourism volume to Maui is increasing but still remains 20% below the levels it saw prior to the devastating August 2023 fire.
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7. More cheap flights to Mexico. (60% confidence)
Verdict: ❌
Despite our hopes, there were 8% fewer cheap flights to Mexico this year compared to 2023.
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8. No new US airline mergers announced this year. (80% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
There was talk of Frontier buying Spirit, but in the end, this prediction proved correct. Not sure I’d make the same prediction for 2025, though.
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9. A budget airline will have the lowest rate of lost bags. (80% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
Allegiant was by far the best airline for handling checked bags this year. Through August (the most recent data), Allegiant had one “mishandled” bag for every ~400 passengers. Compare that to American whose mishandling rate was more than three times worse. (The secret here is that most bags get lost at a connecting airport, but budget airlines typically fly nonstop.)
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The Bad
10. The Justice Department won’t block the Alaska–Hawaiian merger. (70% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
Unlike the JetBlue–Spirit deal, regulators gave Alaska the green light to merge with Hawaiian.
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11. Multiple US airlines will increase bag fees. (70% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
This one came true back in February, when full-service US airlines raised their bag fees from $30 to $35–$40.
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12. A major US airline will devalue their frequent flyer miles. (60% confidence)
Verdict: ✅
Airlines announcing major devaluations is a thing of the past. Nowadays, with airlines moving to dynamic (rather than standardized) award pricing, subtle devaluations are much more common, like United’s increases in award rates this year.
Check back next week for my 2025 predictions.
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Jumpstart your 2025 travel plans. Unlock exclusive deals on international flights, deals bookable with points and miles, customizable flight alerts, and more with Premium or Elite memberships.
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Written by:
Scott Keyes
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Scott is Going’s Co-Founder and Chief Flight Expert.
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