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I went 10 for 12 in last year’s travel predictions. Let’s see if I can beat it this year, shall we?
Here are my 12 predictions for 2025—8 pieces of good news for travelers and 4 pieces of not-so-good news. Check back in December to find out how these predictions went!
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The Good
1. There will be 3–7 mistake fares.
One of our most important jobs at Going is to catch mistake fares and let members know ASAP so they can book them before they disappear. (A few examples from 2024, all roundtrip: Dublin for $114, Finland for 19k points in business class, Cabo Verde for $680 in business class). Airlines have been improving over the years at preventing mistake fares, but they’re still nowhere near perfect. Expect a mistake fare every few months in 2025.
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Forget digging through your email inbox. Members who’ve downloaded the Going app are often the first to know about coveted mistake fares with handy push notifications delivered right to their phone!
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2. You’ll have more elbow room.
The slowdown in travel demand will have a silver lining: less-crowded planes. How full a plane is is called the “load factor,” which typically hovers around 75–90%. In the first eight months of 2024 that we have data for, the load factor averaged 83.6%. In 2025, that figure will drop, and you’ll get to enjoy more empty middle seats.
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3. More flights to Asia than 2024.
In 2024, there were 128,416 scheduled flights between the US and Asia, 22% fewer than in 2019. Flights to Asia have been the slowest to rebound in the pandemic’s wake—thanks in large part to geopolitical tensions with China. But I’m expecting at least 5% more US–Asia flights this year than last, and more deals as a result.
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4. More deals to Europe than 2024.
In 2024, Going’s travel experts found 912 cheap flights to Europe for our members with an average economy price of $511 roundtrip (normal non-Going price: $910 roundtrip). In 2025, as airlines add transatlantic capacity and fight one another on price, we’ll find even more deals to Europe.
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5. No bag fee increases.
A sadly correct prediction of ours last year was that US airlines would increase their bag fees. After most carriers bumped their price in February 2024 to $35–$40, I think that new price will stay put throughout 2025. None of the full-service US airlines (Delta, United, American, Alaska, JetBlue) will increase their bag fees this year.
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6. Another US airline will announce free onboard wifi.
Free onboard wifi has slowly become more prevalent, with JetBlue, Delta, Hawaiian, and soon United and Spirit all offering it. This year, we’ll hear an announcement from at least one other airline (Alaska? Frontier?) promising free onboard wifi for travelers.
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7. Fewer-than-average flight cancellations.
Long-term, around 2% of flights in the US get canceled. This year, we’ll see fewer than that.
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8. More airline–restaurant brand crossovers.
Collaborations between airlines and food brands have become trendy, with Delta recently opting to serve Shake Shack burgers onboard. (Of course, three decades ago United served McDonald’s Happy Meals onboard.) This year, we’ll see at least one more airline partner with a popular food brand.
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The Bad
9. Airfare will increase in 2025.
Here’s how airfare changed in the past five years:
- 2020: -17%
- 2021: -4%
- 2022: +36%
- 2023: -12%
- 2024: +5%
I don’t think we’ll see a wild swing this year, but with airlines slowing flight capacity and budget airlines struggling, I’m expecting somewhat higher fares a year from now. Hope I’m wrong!
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10. At least one month with fewer YoY passengers.
Ever since February 2021, the number of monthly air travelers has exceeded the same month of the previous year. I’m guessing that streak ends in 2025. With pandemic-induced pent-up demand now fully exhausted, we’ll see fewer passengers in at least one month compared to the previous year.
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11. There will be a US airline merger.
After successfully predicting a merger in 2023 (Alaska–Hawaiian), then no mergers in 2024, I’m predicting we will see another merger this year. The most likely is Spirit getting bought out of bankruptcy by another airline (Frontier? JetBlue?), but you could also see one of the other smaller budget airlines getting gobbled up.
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12. Higher-than-average flight delays.
Long-term, around 20% of flights in the US get delayed. This year, we’ll see more than that.
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Written by:
Scott Keyes
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Scott is Going’s Co-Founder and Chief Flight Expert.
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